Confidence
Every suggestion carries a confidence score from 0 to 1. It decides whether the engine shows a price at all: below the minConfidence threshold (default 0.6) the engine stays silent, on the listings and in /ah suggest alike. Where a price is shown on demand through /ah suggest, the score also appears as a one-to-five star rating.
The star rating
| Stars | Confidence | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0.90+ | Very high |
| ★★★★☆ | 0.75+ | High |
| ★★★☆☆ | 0.60+ | Medium |
| ★★☆☆☆ | 0.40+ | Low |
| ★☆☆☆☆ | below 0.40 | Very low |
What raises it
Confidence builds from how much the engine has to go on:
- More recent sales of the item. A handful counts a little, a hundred or more counts a lot.
- A real price history for the item, not just a few loose sales.
- The model's own measured accuracy, checked against a held-out slice of your data each time it trains.
What lowers it
Three penalties pull confidence back down when the data is shaky. Each can be switched off on its own.
| Penalty | What it catches |
|---|---|
| Variance | The item's recent prices are all over the place, so any single number is unreliable. |
| Echo | Recent sales just mirror the engine's own suggestion, so they are not independent evidence. |
| Staleness | The model has not trained in a while, so its view of the market is going stale. |
The threshold and the three penalties live under economyEngine.suggestions in config.yml. Family-based estimates for new items carry their own confidence and can appear below the threshold when priceNewItems is on, always at a low star rating so players know it is a rough guess.
There is one more exception. When the engine cannot price an item at all but your server shop both buys and sells it, it falls back to the middle of the two shop prices at 50% confidence. That estimate shows wherever a price does, in /ah suggest, on the listings and in the sell warning, even though it sits below the default threshold.